Open: 1076.4 Close: 1080.36 Change: 3.96

Today's Summary

Peak Oil has arrived in the US without fanfare whatsoever, which sets up oil for a major bull run. Retail sales (1.9% annualized) are NOT keeping up with inflation – and this is the October data. The defining question of the 21st century is whether humanity can build extraordinary systems, but whether we can align them before they slip. Social Security projected to run out of money soon, says Michael Burry. Private credit markets are where the most dangerous consumer debt lurks. The epitome of complacency is sitting at a record commitment to equities. The real wealth —the underlying wealth creating assets and real estate—will be passed to the next generation. The spread between US30Y and Japan30Y is getting smaller: 1.3%. The people accepting sub-5% yields on the USs spiraling 10-30 year debt are tragically heroic, considering inflation was rising at a 0.1% per month pace. Big funds like Blackrock are gobbling up ma and pops in big markets. The Fed needs to watch out. Wolf Richter says the world is actively looking for an off ramp from the Dollar. Wolf says the US has an exorbitant privelage of being able to print/inflate the dollar in many cases without immediate and/or direct impact to prices at home. The absence of a real value peg prohibits price discovery (and leads to hot money flows) Tesla deliveries plunged by 15.6% from a year ago, to 418,227 vehicles, the lowest Q4 since 2022. Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y plunged by 13.8% from year ago to 406,585. Tesla trades at a mountain high PE with plenty of hype—HYPE that signals strong investor confidence in Teslas LEADERSHIP in EV and a bold bet. Minutes of the December FOMC meeting suggest that even the single rate cut pencilled in for next year may not happen. Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture. Barry Ritholtz: Congestion pricing is working as planned. The Post-American Internet is about the end of a global revolution that never began. Pre-fabs as starter homes on pre-prepared sites is an excellent housing solution, I wish it was adopted here, but for all sorts of reasons (mostly relating to greed and stupidity) Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are driven by rising global electricity demand, especially from AI data centers, and the limitations of intermittent renewable energy sources. SMRs bypass the financial risks of traditional megaprojects like Vogtle by offering shorter construction. Is there an example of true shared wealth and prosperity in any current world economy? What are the best examples of countries with a true basis of the “common good” that we could look towards? The Kumamoto miracle points the way. Sakana AI sends a signal that Japan is a viable destination for international investment in the software industry in general, well beyond AI. A new retention policy in Mississippi has allowed students to repeat the third grade for failing to meet reading standards. Prenetics will retain its existing holdings of 510 bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. The company will not pursue future acquisitions of the cryptocurrency. India is expected to overtake China in terms of GDP growth as early as 2013. China offers everything cheaply for export and has no appetite for imports itself. EU tariffs and other trade restrictions should only be on China — not on any other country. Japan is now basically a developing country again. Foreign direct investment is not the only type of FDI, and when people talk about FDI it often means something very different. Greenfield FDI can help counter that increasing insularity of the Japanese middle class. Russia preparing to escalate crackdown on unregistered cryptocurrency mining. ClARITY Act aims to end turf war between SEC and CFTC, clarify when secondary trading is and is not “the same” as a securities offering. Turkmenistan introduces licensing regime for miners, exchanges, and custodial services.